NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCF OKST
Points 72.5 64.6
Total Points   137.1
Points From 2-Pointers 40.7 25.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.5 22.5
Points From Free Throws 13.2 16.7
Shooting UCF OKST
Field Goals Made 26.5 20.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.2 50.9
Field Goal % 44.8% 39.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 12.7
2 Pointers Attempted 40.7 27.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.0% 45.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 23.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 13.2 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 23.5
Free Throw % 68.6% 71.2%
Ball Control UCF OKST
Rebounds 37.4 32.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 7.9
Turnovers 10.2 13.7
Blocked Shots 5.1 2.5
Steals 9.6 5.3
Fouls 16.7 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Oklahoma St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCF OKST
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 71.5 64.7
% of Possessions with UCF OKST
2 Point Attempt 49.2% 34.5%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 28.7%
Player Fouled 21.3% 23.7%
Turnover 14.5% 19.4%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 13.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCF OKST
Shot Blocked 5.0% 8.7%
Offensive Rebound 31.0% 23.2%