NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LNDNWD IDST
Points 59.0 73.3
Total Points   132.3
Points From 2-Pointers 33.3 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 11.1 20.3
Points From Free Throws 14.6 15.8
Shooting LNDNWD IDST
Field Goals Made 20.4 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 51.8 52.2
Field Goal % 39.4% 48.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 32.9
2 Point Shooting % 42.1% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 3.7 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 12.2 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 30.3% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 14.6 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.1 22.6
Free Throw % 72.6% 70.0%
Ball Control LNDNWD IDST
Rebounds 29.6 35.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.0 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 9.0
Turnovers 11.5 10.0
Blocked Shots 1.8 4.2
Steals 5.3 6.2
Fouls 17.7 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Idaho St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LNDNWD IDST
Total Possessions 67.5
Effective Scoring Chances 63.6 66.4
% of Possessions with LNDNWD IDST
2 Point Attempt 51.4% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 15.9% 25.0%
Player Fouled 23.2% 26.2%
Turnover 17.1% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken LNDNWD IDST
Shot Blocked 8.2% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.4% 29.0%