NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORAL KSU
Points 66.0 80.5
Total Points   146.6
Points From 2-Pointers 30.7 38.1
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 19.5
Points From Free Throws 16.7 22.9
Shooting NORAL KSU
Field Goals Made 21.6 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 59.8 52.9
Field Goal % 36.1% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 38.8% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 16.7 22.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 31.9
Free Throw % 77.2% 71.9%
Ball Control NORAL KSU
Rebounds 31.7 41.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 30.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 10.5
Turnovers 9.3 10.4
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.3
Steals 5.5 4.3
Fouls 19.5 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Kansas St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORAL KSU
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.4 72.2
% of Possessions with NORAL KSU
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 22.4%
Player Fouled 22.5% 27.0%
Turnover 12.9% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORAL KSU
Shot Blocked 8.2% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 32.2%