NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNM SCU
Points 78.6 72.1
Total Points   150.7
Points From 2-Pointers 44.8 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 16.4 20.4
Points From Free Throws 17.5 13.0
Shooting UNM SCU
Field Goals Made 27.8 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 63.5 60.1
Field Goal % 43.9% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 22.4 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 44.8 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.0% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 29.2% 30.6%
Free Throws Made 17.5 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 24.1 18.7
Free Throw % 72.3% 69.6%
Ball Control UNM SCU
Rebounds 36.8 39.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 11.3
Turnovers 7.3 13.3
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.3
Steals 8.0 3.8
Fouls 15.1 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Santa Clara

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNM SCU
Total Possessions 73.9
Effective Scoring Chances 77.8 72.0
% of Possessions with UNM SCU
2 Point Attempt 51.8% 43.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.6% 25.6%
Player Fouled 22.5% 20.4%
Turnover 9.9% 17.9%
Opponent Steal 5.2% 10.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNM SCU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 30.6%