NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring XAV GTWN
Points 86.1 74.8
Total Points   160.8
Points From 2-Pointers 47.1 36.5
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 23.2
Points From Free Throws 18.2 15.0
Shooting XAV GTWN
Field Goals Made 30.5 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 60.4
Field Goal % 52.6% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 23.5 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 60.2% 48.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 18.2 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 24.0 20.9
Free Throw % 75.8% 72.0%
Ball Control XAV GTWN
Rebounds 36.1 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 20.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 11.4
Turnovers 9.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.9
Steals 6.8 4.8
Fouls 15.2 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Xavier

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats XAV GTWN
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.2 73.2
% of Possessions with XAV GTWN
2 Point Attempt 46.7% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 26.5%
Player Fouled 23.1% 21.1%
Turnover 13.6% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken XAV GTWN
Shot Blocked 6.5% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 32.6% 30.3%