NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CP IDHO
Points 64.0 65.5
Total Points   129.5
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 17.7 19.4
Points From Free Throws 13.8 12.6
Shooting CP IDHO
Field Goals Made 22.1 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 52.3 53.8
Field Goal % 42.3% 43.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 34.6
2 Point Shooting % 46.2% 48.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 17.1 19.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 13.8 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 16.9
Free Throw % 70.9% 74.3%
Ball Control CP IDHO
Rebounds 32.3 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 7.8
Turnovers 10.4 10.9
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.1
Steals 5.3 4.9
Fouls 14.6 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Poly

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CP IDHO
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 64.0 63.8
% of Possessions with CP IDHO
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 25.1%
Player Fouled 24.5% 21.8%
Turnover 15.5% 16.3%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CP IDHO
Shot Blocked 5.9% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 24.0%