NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CP WEB
Points 63.5 73.4
Total Points   136.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 17.2 18.6
Points From Free Throws 11.1 17.0
Shooting CP WEB
Field Goals Made 23.3 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 51.7 52.6
Field Goal % 45.1% 47.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 35.2 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 50.0% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.5 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 11.1 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.7 23.1
Free Throw % 70.9% 73.7%
Ball Control CP WEB
Rebounds 29.1 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 6.5 8.3
Turnovers 12.2 9.3
Blocked Shots 2.9 1.6
Steals 4.1 6.4
Fouls 17.0 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Poly

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CP WEB
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 61.7 66.4
% of Possessions with CP WEB
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.1% 23.5%
Player Fouled 22.0% 25.2%
Turnover 18.0% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CP WEB
Shot Blocked 3.0% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 20.9% 27.0%