NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FUR SAM
Points 78.3 86.6
Total Points   164.9
Points From 2-Pointers 32.2 44.7
Points From 3-Pointers 29.7 27.2
Points From Free Throws 16.4 14.7
Shooting FUR SAM
Field Goals Made 26.0 31.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 60.0
Field Goal % 43.3% 52.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 22.3
2 Pointers Attempted 29.3 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 55.0% 60.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.9 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 30.8 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 16.4 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.6 20.8
Free Throw % 72.6% 70.7%
Ball Control FUR SAM
Rebounds 35.3 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 8.0
Turnovers 13.0 11.2
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.1
Steals 6.8 8.0
Fouls 17.0 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Samford

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FUR SAM
Total Possessions 75.8
Effective Scoring Chances 74.1 72.6
% of Possessions with FUR SAM
2 Point Attempt 33.0% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 34.7% 27.3%
Player Fouled 21.3% 22.4%
Turnover 17.2% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 10.5% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken FUR SAM
Shot Blocked 6.9% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 30.3% 25.1%