NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNI TOL
Points 80.1 75.3
Total Points   155.5
Points From 2-Pointers 45.3 41.1
Points From 3-Pointers 21.4 19.3
Points From Free Throws 13.5 14.9
Shooting UNI TOL
Field Goals Made 29.8 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.3 56.6
Field Goal % 52.8% 47.7%
2 Pointers Made 22.7 20.6
2 Pointers Attempted 35.9 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 63.1% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 13.5 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 20.0
Free Throw % 70.8% 74.2%
Ball Control UNI TOL
Rebounds 32.3 29.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 22.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 7.1
Turnovers 10.1 9.9
Blocked Shots 3.6 1.8
Steals 5.9 6.1
Fouls 16.5 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Toledo

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNI TOL
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 68.3
% of Possessions with UNI TOL
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 49.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.9% 22.0%
Player Fouled 21.3% 23.2%
Turnover 14.2% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNI TOL
Shot Blocked 3.3% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 22.1%