NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GMU TOL
Points 78.2 70.2
Total Points   148.4
Points From 2-Pointers 44.8 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 19.5
Points From Free Throws 12.6 15.0
Shooting GMU TOL
Field Goals Made 29.3 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 54.4 56.3
Field Goal % 53.9% 43.2%
2 Pointers Made 22.4 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 34.6 38.4
2 Point Shooting % 64.8% 46.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 17.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 12.6 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 20.2
Free Throw % 74.1% 74.2%
Ball Control GMU TOL
Rebounds 34.1 28.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 19.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 8.9
Turnovers 11.8 9.3
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.1
Steals 5.1 6.5
Fouls 16.0 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Geo Mason

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GMU TOL
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 65.3 68.2
% of Possessions with GMU TOL
2 Point Attempt 44.4% 48.5%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 22.7%
Player Fouled 21.1% 23.4%
Turnover 17.2% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken GMU TOL
Shot Blocked 3.8% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 30.6% 25.8%