NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORL SJSU
Points 67.7 79.8
Total Points   147.5
Points From 2-Pointers 35.8 45.4
Points From 3-Pointers 15.3 23.4
Points From Free Throws 16.6 11.0
Shooting NORL SJSU
Field Goals Made 23.0 30.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 58.8
Field Goal % 40.3% 51.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 22.7
2 Pointers Attempted 41.6 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 43.1% 60.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 15.5 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 16.6 11.0
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 16.1
Free Throw % 70.6% 68.6%
Ball Control NORL SJSU
Rebounds 33.0 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 8.0
Turnovers 9.8 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.1
Steals 4.8 4.4
Fouls 15.0 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: San Jose St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORL SJSU
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.0 68.5
% of Possessions with NORL SJSU
2 Point Attempt 50.4% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 18.8% 26.2%
Player Fouled 23.8% 21.2%
Turnover 13.9% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORL SJSU
Shot Blocked 7.0% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 25.8%