NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PENN LAS
Points 73.5 76.4
Total Points   149.9
Points From 2-Pointers 37.5 36.6
Points From 3-Pointers 24.1 30.1
Points From Free Throws 11.9 9.7
Shooting PENN LAS
Field Goals Made 26.8 28.3
Field Goals Attempted 60.1 62.0
Field Goal % 44.6% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 48.9% 52.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 10.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 26.9
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 11.9 9.7
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 13.6
Free Throw % 70.2% 71.6%
Ball Control PENN LAS
Rebounds 37.3 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 8.3
Turnovers 8.5 7.1
Blocked Shots 1.9 2.9
Steals 4.0 4.8
Fouls 12.1 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: U Penn

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PENN LAS
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 70.2
% of Possessions with PENN LAS
2 Point Attempt 48.0% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 27.1% 34.5%
Player Fouled 18.9% 17.5%
Turnover 12.3% 10.3%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PENN LAS
Shot Blocked 4.7% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 27.1% 23.1%