NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COLG HC
Points 74.2 60.1
Total Points   134.4
Points From 2-Pointers 37.2 31.4
Points From 3-Pointers 26.1 21.0
Points From Free Throws 10.9 7.8
Shooting COLG HC
Field Goals Made 27.3 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 56.2
Field Goal % 48.4% 40.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 15.7
2 Pointers Attempted 34.6 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.8% 45.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.7 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 39.9% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 10.9 7.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 11.7
Free Throw % 66.6% 66.3%
Ball Control COLG HC
Rebounds 36.2 31.4
Rebounds - Defensive 28.8 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 6.6
Turnovers 6.7 8.9
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.6
Steals 5.7 3.3
Fouls 10.3 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Holy Cross

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COLG HC
Total Possessions 65.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 63.1
% of Possessions with COLG HC
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 29.6% 29.6%
Player Fouled 19.7% 15.7%
Turnover 10.2% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 5.0% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken COLG HC
Shot Blocked 4.7% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.9% 18.7%