NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COLG ARIZ
Points 62.8 81.6
Total Points   144.5
Points From 2-Pointers 33.9 45.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.4 21.6
Points From Free Throws 8.5 14.5
Shooting COLG ARIZ
Field Goals Made 23.7 30.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.1 61.9
Field Goal % 40.2% 48.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 22.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 40.7
2 Point Shooting % 46.1% 56.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 21.2
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 8.5 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 12.8 20.4
Free Throw % 66.6% 71.0%
Ball Control COLG ARIZ
Rebounds 30.0 42.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 30.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.5 11.7
Turnovers 11.7 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.7
Steals 5.6 7.3
Fouls 13.8 12.0

Playing Style Advantage: Arizona

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COLG ARIZ
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 66.6 74.5
% of Possessions with COLG ARIZ
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 25.0%
Player Fouled 16.7% 19.2%
Turnover 16.4% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken COLG ARIZ
Shot Blocked 6.0% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 17.5% 33.4%