NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSU UNM
Points 71.4 72.2
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 42.2
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 15.3
Points From Free Throws 13.7 14.7
Shooting CSU UNM
Field Goals Made 25.7 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 62.2
Field Goal % 45.8% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 45.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 46.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 5.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 16.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 13.7 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 20.3
Free Throw % 74.7% 72.3%
Ball Control CSU UNM
Rebounds 33.8 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 12.2
Turnovers 10.9 8.4
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.0
Steals 4.8 6.3
Fouls 15.0 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Colorado St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSU UNM
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 66.8 74.5
% of Possessions with CSU UNM
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 54.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.2% 19.7%
Player Fouled 21.7% 21.2%
Turnover 15.5% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSU UNM
Shot Blocked 6.6% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 31.2%