NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MISS UCF
Points 69.7 72.0
Total Points   141.7
Points From 2-Pointers 30.2 35.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.6 20.3
Points From Free Throws 17.8 16.3
Shooting MISS UCF
Field Goals Made 22.3 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 53.9 59.4
Field Goal % 41.4% 41.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.1 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 44.5% 44.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.9 19.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.2% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 17.8 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 24.4 23.7
Free Throw % 73.0% 68.6%
Ball Control MISS UCF
Rebounds 33.7 40.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 14.3
Turnovers 11.5 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.8 3.8
Steals 6.5 7.3
Fouls 15.1 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Mississippi

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MISS UCF
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 68.7 74.1
% of Possessions with MISS UCF
2 Point Attempt 41.6% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.4% 22.8%
Player Fouled 23.8% 21.2%
Turnover 16.2% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MISS UCF
Shot Blocked 6.5% 9.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.1% 36.7%