NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SFPA IONA
Points 61.9 75.2
Total Points   137.1
Points From 2-Pointers 31.3 37.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.5 25.1
Points From Free Throws 12.2 13.1
Shooting SFPA IONA
Field Goals Made 21.8 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 49.5 58.3
Field Goal % 44.0% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 31.2 35.3
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 52.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 12.2 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 19.8
Free Throw % 60.1% 66.3%
Ball Control SFPA IONA
Rebounds 33.6 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 22.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 10.9
Turnovers 15.0 8.5
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.3
Steals 4.4 7.9
Fouls 14.8 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Iona

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SFPA IONA
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 62.3 70.2
% of Possessions with SFPA IONA
2 Point Attempt 39.4% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 28.7%
Player Fouled 23.1% 21.9%
Turnover 22.1% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 11.6% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SFPA IONA
Shot Blocked 7.5% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 29.5% 31.2%