NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST ALA
Points 78.7 98.4
Total Points   177.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 49.8
Points From 3-Pointers 25.1 29.9
Points From Free Throws 16.7 18.7
Shooting ARST ALA
Field Goals Made 26.8 34.9
Field Goals Attempted 66.6 65.0
Field Goal % 40.3% 53.6%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 24.9
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 40.7
2 Point Shooting % 46.8% 61.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 10.0
3 Pointers Attempted 27.2 24.3
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 40.9%
Free Throws Made 16.7 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 23.7 24.4
Free Throw % 70.2% 76.4%
Ball Control ARST ALA
Rebounds 34.9 41.5
Rebounds - Defensive 21.5 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 13.4 11.7
Turnovers 9.2 8.5
Blocked Shots 4.5 5.9
Steals 5.1 5.8
Fouls 17.8 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST ALA
Total Possessions 76.1
Effective Scoring Chances 80.3 79.3
% of Possessions with ARST ALA
2 Point Attempt 42.9% 45.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 27.2%
Player Fouled 20.0% 23.4%
Turnover 12.1% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST ALA
Shot Blocked 9.3% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 31.0% 35.2%