NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring M-OH MRSH
Points 69.7 69.1
Total Points   138.8
Points From 2-Pointers 30.7 33.8
Points From 3-Pointers 26.3 23.5
Points From Free Throws 12.7 11.8
Shooting M-OH MRSH
Field Goals Made 24.1 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 62.4
Field Goal % 41.8% 39.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 35.3 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 43.6% 46.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 26.0
3 Point Shooting % 39.0% 30.1%
Free Throws Made 12.7 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 16.4
Free Throw % 71.5% 71.7%
Ball Control M-OH MRSH
Rebounds 35.6 40.7
Rebounds - Defensive 28.6 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 11.6
Turnovers 11.1 10.5
Blocked Shots 2.0 4.2
Steals 6.1 7.0
Fouls 13.3 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miami (OH)

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats M-OH MRSH
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 73.2
% of Possessions with M-OH MRSH
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 30.7%
Player Fouled 21.5% 18.5%
Turnover 15.4% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken M-OH MRSH
Shot Blocked 6.7% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 19.4% 28.8%