NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMASS MW
Points 70.6 67.1
Total Points   137.7
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 35.5
Points From 3-Pointers 13.5 18.7
Points From Free Throws 18.1 12.8
Shooting UMASS MW
Field Goals Made 24.0 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 53.8 59.4
Field Goal % 44.7% 40.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 40.0 37.2
2 Point Shooting % 48.9% 47.8%
3 Pointers Made 4.5 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 13.8 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 28.2%
Free Throws Made 18.1 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 24.4 17.2
Free Throw % 74.3% 74.8%
Ball Control UMASS MW
Rebounds 43.2 27.3
Rebounds - Defensive 30.5 20.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.7 6.9
Turnovers 16.3 11.0
Blocked Shots 4.0 4.4
Steals 6.3 10.8
Fouls 14.1 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMASS MW
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.7 69.3
% of Possessions with UMASS MW
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 45.4%
3 Point Attempt 15.7% 27.1%
Player Fouled 22.6% 19.2%
Turnover 22.3% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 14.7% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMASS MW
Shot Blocked 7.5% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 38.3% 18.4%