NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOL BUFF
Points 84.2 72.6
Total Points   156.8
Points From 2-Pointers 48.3 42.8
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 20.6
Points From Free Throws 16.0 9.2
Shooting TOL BUFF
Field Goals Made 30.8 28.3
Field Goals Attempted 63.3 59.3
Field Goal % 48.6% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 24.1 21.4
2 Pointers Attempted 46.1 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 59.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 17.2 23.5
3 Point Shooting % 38.7% 29.3%
Free Throws Made 16.0 9.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 12.8
Free Throw % 74.2% 71.6%
Ball Control TOL BUFF
Rebounds 35.7 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 24.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 8.2
Turnovers 8.6 13.5
Blocked Shots 1.9 5.6
Steals 7.4 5.2
Fouls 11.6 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Buffalo

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOL BUFF
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 75.4 67.8
% of Possessions with TOL BUFF
2 Point Attempt 53.5% 43.6%
3 Point Attempt 19.9% 28.6%
Player Fouled 20.2% 15.8%
Turnover 11.7% 18.5%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 10.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOL BUFF
Shot Blocked 9.5% 3.1%
Offensive Rebound 30.8% 24.7%