NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SIE MSM
Points 61.4 73.5
Total Points   134.9
Points From 2-Pointers 32.4 43.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.0 20.2
Points From Free Throws 10.9 10.3
Shooting SIE MSM
Field Goals Made 22.2 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 60.6
Field Goal % 39.0% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 21.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 40.9
2 Point Shooting % 43.9% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 10.9 10.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 14.3
Free Throw % 68.7% 71.9%
Ball Control SIE MSM
Rebounds 35.0 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 10.2
Turnovers 13.2 10.3
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.2
Steals 6.0 7.7
Fouls 12.2 12.7

Playing Style Advantage: Mt St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SIE MSM
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.2 69.5
% of Possessions with SIE MSM
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 50.4%
3 Point Attempt 24.4% 24.2%
Player Fouled 18.2% 17.6%
Turnover 19.0% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 11.0% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken SIE MSM
Shot Blocked 7.0% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 29.8%