NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USI INST
Points 64.5 88.8
Total Points   153.3
Points From 2-Pointers 31.8 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 31.1
Points From Free Throws 13.2 24.4
Shooting USI INST
Field Goals Made 22.4 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 50.9
Field Goal % 38.5% 53.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 24.1
2 Point Shooting % 41.4% 69.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.9 26.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 38.6%
Free Throws Made 13.2 24.4
Free Throws Attempted 17.5 30.2
Free Throw % 75.1% 80.7%
Ball Control USI INST
Rebounds 29.1 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 21.3 30.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 6.0
Turnovers 11.5 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.2 1.7
Steals 5.4 5.8
Fouls 21.1 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: S Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USI INST
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 68.9
% of Possessions with USI INST
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 30.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 33.5%
Player Fouled 21.8% 28.9%
Turnover 15.8% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken USI INST
Shot Blocked 3.4% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 20.4% 22.1%