NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WAG PROV
Points 53.2 71.9
Total Points   125.1
Points From 2-Pointers 26.9 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 17.5 24.2
Points From Free Throws 8.7 14.2
Shooting WAG PROV
Field Goals Made 19.3 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 54.0
Field Goal % 32.7% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 13.4 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.8 27.5
2 Point Shooting % 33.8% 61.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 26.5
3 Point Shooting % 30.5% 30.4%
Free Throws Made 8.7 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 12.6 19.1
Free Throw % 69.5% 74.5%
Ball Control WAG PROV
Rebounds 31.5 41.7
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 32.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 9.1
Turnovers 8.9 9.5
Blocked Shots 1.8 4.1
Steals 5.2 4.1
Fouls 15.7 11.5

Playing Style Advantage: Wagner

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WAG PROV
Total Possessions 66.4
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 66.0
% of Possessions with WAG PROV
2 Point Attempt 51.9% 36.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 34.7%
Player Fouled 17.2% 23.7%
Turnover 13.3% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken WAG PROV
Shot Blocked 7.6% 3.1%
Offensive Rebound 21.0% 28.6%