NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCW UK
Points 75.4 90.3
Total Points   165.7
Points From 2-Pointers 33.6 46.2
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 28.4
Points From Free Throws 17.0 15.7
Shooting UNCW UK
Field Goals Made 25.1 32.6
Field Goals Attempted 63.4 60.2
Field Goal % 39.6% 54.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 23.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 45.0% 59.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 9.5
3 Pointers Attempted 26.0 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 44.5%
Free Throws Made 17.0 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 20.1
Free Throw % 77.5% 78.2%
Ball Control UNCW UK
Rebounds 32.2 38.4
Rebounds - Defensive 21.4 29.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 8.8
Turnovers 8.3 9.4
Blocked Shots 1.9 5.3
Steals 5.1 4.5
Fouls 15.9 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Wilmgton

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCW UK
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 75.8 72.6
% of Possessions with UNCW UK
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 25.7%
Player Fouled 21.3% 21.7%
Turnover 11.4% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCW UK
Shot Blocked 8.9% 3.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 29.1%