NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FSU USF
Points 73.6 73.7
Total Points   147.3
Points From 2-Pointers 40.2 29.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.4 25.5
Points From Free Throws 17.0 18.8
Shooting FSU USF
Field Goals Made 25.6 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 54.3
Field Goal % 44.9% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.1 14.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 31.4
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 17.6 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 17.0 18.8
Free Throws Attempted 24.1 25.9
Free Throw % 70.5% 72.6%
Ball Control FSU USF
Rebounds 35.3 35.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 10.0
Turnovers 11.1 12.6
Blocked Shots 3.8 2.5
Steals 7.6 5.4
Fouls 18.5 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: S Florida

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FSU USF
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.0 70.2
% of Possessions with FSU USF
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 37.2%
3 Point Attempt 20.9% 27.2%
Player Fouled 23.7% 25.4%
Turnover 15.3% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 10.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken FSU USF
Shot Blocked 4.6% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 28.7%