NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FSU PITT
Points 69.3 78.9
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 32.8
Points From 3-Pointers 15.3 29.4
Points From Free Throws 14.9 16.7
Shooting FSU PITT
Field Goals Made 24.6 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 59.7
Field Goal % 44.4% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.5 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.1% 48.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 9.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 26.0
3 Point Shooting % 28.4% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 14.9 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 22.8
Free Throw % 70.5% 73.0%
Ball Control FSU PITT
Rebounds 32.0 38.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 12.5
Turnovers 10.6 9.7
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.8
Steals 6.0 5.2
Fouls 16.7 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Pittsburgh

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FSU PITT
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 73.7
% of Possessions with FSU PITT
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 39.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 30.6%
Player Fouled 22.6% 23.6%
Turnover 15.0% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken FSU PITT
Shot Blocked 6.4% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 34.1%