NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SJSU NDSU
Points 76.3 72.9
Total Points   149.2
Points From 2-Pointers 44.6 35.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.4 24.2
Points From Free Throws 8.3 13.3
Shooting SJSU NDSU
Field Goals Made 30.1 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 53.7
Field Goal % 51.8% 48.0%
2 Pointers Made 22.3 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 34.4
2 Point Shooting % 59.2% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 38.3% 41.8%
Free Throws Made 8.3 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 12.1 17.9
Free Throw % 68.6% 74.1%
Ball Control SJSU NDSU
Rebounds 28.7 31.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 5.6 7.2
Turnovers 7.4 10.4
Blocked Shots 4.1 1.1
Steals 4.7 2.6
Fouls 14.6 11.9

Playing Style Advantage: San Jose St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJSU NDSU
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 65.5 64.1
% of Possessions with SJSU NDSU
2 Point Attempt 51.3% 45.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 25.4%
Player Fouled 17.7% 21.7%
Turnover 11.0% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 3.9% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SJSU NDSU
Shot Blocked 2.0% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 18.7% 23.7%