NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SJSU MONT
Points 70.6 76.6
Total Points   147.3
Points From 2-Pointers 40.5 37.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 26.4
Points From Free Throws 10.0 13.2
Shooting SJSU MONT
Field Goals Made 27.0 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 55.5
Field Goal % 46.6% 49.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.3 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 33.6
2 Point Shooting % 52.1% 55.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 40.4%
Free Throws Made 10.0 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 14.5 16.5
Free Throw % 68.6% 80.1%
Ball Control SJSU MONT
Rebounds 29.5 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 7.0
Turnovers 7.3 8.9
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.5
Steals 4.5 3.1
Fouls 14.0 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Montana

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJSU MONT
Total Possessions 67.0
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 65.1
% of Possessions with SJSU MONT
2 Point Attempt 52.0% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 29.0%
Player Fouled 19.4% 20.9%
Turnover 10.9% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 4.6% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken SJSU MONT
Shot Blocked 4.5% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 20.3% 23.6%