NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORF ILST
Points 65.0 67.0
Total Points   131.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 26.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.0 22.6
Points From Free Throws 12.3 17.9
Shooting NORF ILST
Field Goals Made 23.6 20.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.9 48.7
Field Goal % 43.1% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 13.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 25.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.1% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 17.6 23.5
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 12.3 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.2 24.5
Free Throw % 71.8% 73.0%
Ball Control NORF ILST
Rebounds 31.0 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 21.9 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 9.7
Turnovers 9.5 11.7
Blocked Shots 2.8 2.3
Steals 5.8 4.4
Fouls 18.0 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Norfolk St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORF ILST
Total Possessions 66.0
Effective Scoring Chances 65.6 64.1
% of Possessions with NORF ILST
2 Point Attempt 49.1% 32.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 30.5%
Player Fouled 22.3% 27.2%
Turnover 14.4% 17.7%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORF ILST
Shot Blocked 4.7% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.9% 30.8%