NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC CONN
Points 67.1 76.1
Total Points   143.3
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 17.8 22.9
Points From Free Throws 16.5 14.0
Shooting UNC CONN
Field Goals Made 22.4 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.5 60.2
Field Goal % 36.3% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 43.0 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 38.2% 53.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 16.5 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 18.7
Free Throw % 75.4% 75.1%
Ball Control UNC CONN
Rebounds 37.3 39.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 30.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 9.5
Turnovers 7.6 8.2
Blocked Shots 3.3 5.6
Steals 4.7 4.1
Fouls 15.0 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC CONN
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 73.8 71.3
% of Possessions with UNC CONN
2 Point Attempt 51.4% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 28.8%
Player Fouled 22.4% 21.4%
Turnover 10.9% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC CONN
Shot Blocked 9.4% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 26.8%