NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BU WAG
Points 62.4 61.1
Total Points   123.5
Points From 2-Pointers 29.6 27.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.6 22.6
Points From Free Throws 11.2 11.1
Shooting BU WAG
Field Goals Made 22.0 21.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 54.8
Field Goal % 40.3% 38.7%
2 Pointers Made 14.8 13.7
2 Pointers Attempted 30.7 32.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 41.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.1% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 11.2 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 15.5 16.0
Free Throw % 72.2% 69.5%
Ball Control BU WAG
Rebounds 37.7 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.5 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 7.6
Turnovers 9.5 8.1
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.3
Steals 4.1 5.2
Fouls 13.3 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Wagner

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BU WAG
Total Possessions 64.7
Effective Scoring Chances 64.4 64.3
% of Possessions with BU WAG
2 Point Attempt 41.0% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 32.0% 29.9%
Player Fouled 20.7% 20.5%
Turnover 14.7% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken BU WAG
Shot Blocked 4.2% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 21.2%