NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TNST LIP
Points 72.9 80.3
Total Points   153.2
Points From 2-Pointers 40.2 40.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.5 24.4
Points From Free Throws 12.2 15.8
Shooting TNST LIP
Field Goals Made 26.9 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 57.3
Field Goal % 45.9% 49.2%
2 Pointers Made 20.1 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 35.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 12.2 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.1 20.4
Free Throw % 76.1% 77.5%
Ball Control TNST LIP
Rebounds 33.4 31.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 7.3
Turnovers 12.5 10.1
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.7
Steals 4.9 6.7
Fouls 16.4 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: TN State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TNST LIP
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.7 69.1
% of Possessions with TNST LIP
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 24.5% 27.0%
Player Fouled 17.3% 22.8%
Turnover 17.4% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken TNST LIP
Shot Blocked 6.6% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 23.1%