NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PAC NAU
Points 68.7 75.8
Total Points   144.4
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 39.5
Points From 3-Pointers 13.9 21.7
Points From Free Throws 16.2 14.5
Shooting PAC NAU
Field Goals Made 23.9 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 52.9 56.8
Field Goal % 45.1% 47.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.8% 58.1%
3 Pointers Made 4.6 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 15.8 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 16.2 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 24.9 21.0
Free Throw % 65.1% 69.2%
Ball Control PAC NAU
Rebounds 30.9 36.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.3 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 9.4
Turnovers 10.1 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.3
Steals 6.0 4.8
Fouls 15.6 18.4

Playing Style Advantage: N Arizona

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PAC NAU
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 70.0
% of Possessions with PAC NAU
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 20.0% 28.2%
Player Fouled 25.9% 22.0%
Turnover 14.2% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken PAC NAU
Shot Blocked 5.8% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 19.6% 27.9%