NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AUB APP
Points 78.6 65.4
Total Points   144.1
Points From 2-Pointers 43.2 35.5
Points From 3-Pointers 21.8 14.4
Points From Free Throws 13.6 15.5
Shooting AUB APP
Field Goals Made 28.9 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 66.8 61.4
Field Goal % 43.2% 36.7%
2 Pointers Made 21.6 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 45.8 45.3
2 Point Shooting % 47.2% 39.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 4.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.0 16.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 29.9%
Free Throws Made 13.6 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 22.3
Free Throw % 74.8% 69.5%
Ball Control AUB APP
Rebounds 42.6 39.6
Rebounds - Defensive 30.6 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 11.6
Turnovers 8.3 10.7
Blocked Shots 5.2 4.5
Steals 7.2 5.1
Fouls 15.5 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Auburn

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AUB APP
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 77.4 74.6
% of Possessions with AUB APP
2 Point Attempt 52.4% 51.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 18.4%
Player Fouled 18.6% 21.0%
Turnover 11.3% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 9.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken AUB APP
Shot Blocked 7.5% 8.0%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 27.5%