NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIZZ PITT
Points 65.7 79.6
Total Points   145.4
Points From 2-Pointers 33.1 30.2
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 31.8
Points From Free Throws 13.5 17.6
Shooting MIZZ PITT
Field Goals Made 22.9 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 58.8
Field Goal % 41.9% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 15.1
2 Pointers Attempted 32.1 30.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 10.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 27.8
3 Point Shooting % 28.2% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 13.5 17.6
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 24.1
Free Throw % 78.9% 73.0%
Ball Control MIZZ PITT
Rebounds 30.5 39.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 13.0
Turnovers 10.7 8.2
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.9
Steals 4.9 5.9
Fouls 17.2 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Pittsburgh

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIZZ PITT
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 64.7 73.2
% of Possessions with MIZZ PITT
2 Point Attempt 41.6% 37.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 33.5%
Player Fouled 21.5% 25.2%
Turnover 15.7% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIZZ PITT
Shot Blocked 6.7% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 21.0% 35.6%