NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOWS UMBC
Points 76.1 67.5
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 41.0 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 21.5 22.9
Points From Free Throws 13.5 9.0
Shooting TOWS UMBC
Field Goals Made 27.7 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 67.1 59.1
Field Goal % 41.2% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.5 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 43.7 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 21.2
3 Point Shooting % 30.7% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 13.5 9.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 13.3
Free Throw % 66.3% 67.9%
Ball Control TOWS UMBC
Rebounds 47.3 31.5
Rebounds - Defensive 28.8 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 18.5 6.9
Turnovers 9.3 11.5
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.4
Steals 7.1 3.9
Fouls 13.8 12.2

Playing Style Advantage: Towson

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOWS UMBC
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 80.5 66.7
% of Possessions with TOWS UMBC
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 26.6%
Player Fouled 17.1% 19.4%
Turnover 13.1% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOWS UMBC
Shot Blocked 5.9% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 42.9% 19.3%