NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOWS UNCW
Points 67.4 68.5
Total Points   135.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.0 32.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 20.6
Points From Free Throws 13.5 15.1
Shooting TOWS UNCW
Field Goals Made 23.8 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.0 55.1
Field Goal % 43.3% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.6% 48.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.2 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 32.5%
Free Throws Made 13.5 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 19.5
Free Throw % 66.3% 77.5%
Ball Control TOWS UNCW
Rebounds 38.9 30.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 21.1
Rebounds - Offensive 14.0 9.1
Turnovers 10.5 7.6
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.4
Steals 3.6 5.3
Fouls 16.1 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Wilmgton

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOWS UNCW
Total Possessions 65.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.5 66.6
% of Possessions with TOWS UNCW
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.7% 27.9%
Player Fouled 21.6% 24.7%
Turnover 16.2% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOWS UNCW
Shot Blocked 4.4% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 39.8% 26.7%