NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STT CHS
Points 70.2 61.9
Total Points   132.1
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 32.9
Points From 3-Pointers 24.4 16.3
Points From Free Throws 12.4 12.7
Shooting STT CHS
Field Goals Made 24.8 21.9
Field Goals Attempted 50.0 50.4
Field Goal % 49.7% 43.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 27.4 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 60.9% 50.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 12.4 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 18.0
Free Throw % 71.9% 70.5%
Ball Control STT CHS
Rebounds 29.7 29.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.4 20.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 9.2
Turnovers 11.2 11.7
Blocked Shots 1.6 2.4
Steals 5.5 6.6
Fouls 14.2 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: St. Thomas

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STT CHS
Total Possessions 64.7
Effective Scoring Chances 60.7 62.3
% of Possessions with STT CHS
2 Point Attempt 37.6% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.9% 23.7%
Player Fouled 24.7% 21.9%
Turnover 17.4% 18.0%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken STT CHS
Shot Blocked 4.9% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.1% 29.2%