NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSD WASH
Points 75.5 84.7
Total Points   160.3
Points From 2-Pointers 36.3 45.5
Points From 3-Pointers 25.2 25.9
Points From Free Throws 14.1 13.4
Shooting UCSD WASH
Field Goals Made 26.5 31.4
Field Goals Attempted 62.8 59.2
Field Goal % 42.3% 53.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 22.7
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.6% 61.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 14.1 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 18.7
Free Throw % 74.1% 71.5%
Ball Control UCSD WASH
Rebounds 33.4 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 7.1
Turnovers 8.7 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.3 4.3
Steals 5.2 4.1
Fouls 16.6 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Washington

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSD WASH
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 73.7 70.5
% of Possessions with UCSD WASH
2 Point Attempt 45.3% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.3% 27.4%
Player Fouled 20.9% 22.7%
Turnover 11.9% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSD WASH
Shot Blocked 7.4% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 22.9%