NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSD CSN
Points 76.0 74.1
Total Points   150.1
Points From 2-Pointers 29.0 45.1
Points From 3-Pointers 30.2 16.2
Points From Free Throws 16.8 12.8
Shooting UCSD CSN
Field Goals Made 24.6 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 58.5
Field Goal % 41.4% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 14.5 22.5
2 Pointers Attempted 29.5 42.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.2% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 10.1 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 29.9 16.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 16.8 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 18.9
Free Throw % 74.1% 67.7%
Ball Control UCSD CSN
Rebounds 34.7 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 8.6
Turnovers 9.3 11.3
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.6
Steals 6.5 4.7
Fouls 16.1 18.7

Playing Style Advantage: Cal St Nrdge

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSD CSN
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 72.8 70.2
% of Possessions with UCSD CSN
2 Point Attempt 35.3% 51.1%
3 Point Attempt 35.7% 19.7%
Player Fouled 25.6% 22.1%
Turnover 12.8% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSD CSN
Shot Blocked 6.2% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 25.3%