NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY DAY
Points 67.2 79.4
Total Points   146.6
Points From 2-Pointers 30.8 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 25.1 27.9
Points From Free Throws 11.3 18.0
Shooting TROY DAY
Field Goals Made 23.8 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 50.9
Field Goal % 39.5% 51.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 28.8
2 Point Shooting % 45.2% 58.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 26.2 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 42.0%
Free Throws Made 11.3 18.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.4 24.1
Free Throw % 73.4% 74.7%
Ball Control TROY DAY
Rebounds 32.0 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 21.0 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 7.4
Turnovers 11.2 12.0
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.5
Steals 8.1 6.4
Fouls 17.6 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY DAY
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 65.6
% of Possessions with TROY DAY
2 Point Attempt 41.2% 36.6%
3 Point Attempt 31.7% 28.1%
Player Fouled 18.0% 25.0%
Turnover 16.0% 17.1%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 11.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY DAY
Shot Blocked 7.1% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 26.1%