NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PEPP COLO
Points 68.5 82.5
Total Points   151.0
Points From 2-Pointers 39.8 46.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.8 19.0
Points From Free Throws 10.9 16.6
Shooting PEPP COLO
Field Goals Made 25.8 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 54.0
Field Goal % 44.0% 55.1%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 23.4
2 Pointers Attempted 40.2 39.8
2 Point Shooting % 49.5% 58.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 14.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 44.6%
Free Throws Made 10.9 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 15.7 21.8
Free Throw % 69.8% 76.0%
Ball Control PEPP COLO
Rebounds 27.1 35.7
Rebounds - Defensive 19.3 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 7.9
Turnovers 9.6 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.7 1.7
Steals 5.1 5.5
Fouls 16.3 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Pepperdine

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PEPP COLO
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 68.4 67.3
% of Possessions with PEPP COLO
2 Point Attempt 51.0% 50.2%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 17.9%
Player Fouled 19.6% 23.1%
Turnover 13.7% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PEPP COLO
Shot Blocked 3.3% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 28.9%