NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WEB MTST
Points 74.1 74.3
Total Points   148.4
Points From 2-Pointers 38.9 38.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 25.2
Points From Free Throws 16.1 11.1
Shooting WEB MTST
Field Goals Made 25.8 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 52.7 52.8
Field Goal % 49.0% 51.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.7 31.7
2 Point Shooting % 57.6% 59.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 39.7%
Free Throws Made 16.1 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 15.4
Free Throw % 73.7% 72.4%
Ball Control WEB MTST
Rebounds 30.0 28.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 5.0
Turnovers 10.3 11.9
Blocked Shots 1.4 2.0
Steals 6.2 6.0
Fouls 15.3 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WEB MTST
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 62.4
% of Possessions with WEB MTST
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 24.6% 28.2%
Player Fouled 24.9% 22.0%
Turnover 14.8% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken WEB MTST
Shot Blocked 3.8% 2.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.2% 17.9%