NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UK PENN
Points 94.4 72.1
Total Points   166.5
Points From 2-Pointers 46.1 30.3
Points From 3-Pointers 34.0 29.6
Points From Free Throws 14.3 12.2
Shooting UK PENN
Field Goals Made 34.4 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 63.4 63.4
Field Goal % 54.2% 39.5%
2 Pointers Made 23.0 15.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 34.9
2 Point Shooting % 61.8% 43.5%
3 Pointers Made 11.3 9.9
3 Pointers Attempted 26.1 28.6
3 Point Shooting % 43.4% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 14.3 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 17.3
Free Throw % 78.2% 70.2%
Ball Control UK PENN
Rebounds 39.5 32.4
Rebounds - Defensive 31.2 23.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 9.3
Turnovers 7.7 10.3
Blocked Shots 5.9 1.5
Steals 6.0 4.7
Fouls 13.2 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: U Penn

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UK PENN
Total Possessions 74.0
Effective Scoring Chances 74.6 73.0
% of Possessions with UK PENN
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 33.3%
Player Fouled 18.9% 17.8%
Turnover 10.3% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UK PENN
Shot Blocked 2.4% 9.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 23.0%