NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEV BSU
Points 68.3 68.8
Total Points   137.1
Points From 2-Pointers 34.7 30.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.6 22.2
Points From Free Throws 17.0 16.5
Shooting NEV BSU
Field Goals Made 22.9 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 49.1 54.7
Field Goal % 46.6% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 15.0
2 Pointers Attempted 31.8 31.8
2 Point Shooting % 54.5% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 17.3 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 17.0 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 23.9 22.2
Free Throw % 71.2% 74.3%
Ball Control NEV BSU
Rebounds 30.7 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 6.3 10.8
Turnovers 9.9 9.7
Blocked Shots 3.4 1.8
Steals 5.0 4.5
Fouls 16.3 19.5

Playing Style Advantage: Nevada

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEV BSU
Total Possessions 67.2
Effective Scoring Chances 63.6 68.3
% of Possessions with NEV BSU
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 40.1%
3 Point Attempt 23.3% 28.8%
Player Fouled 29.0% 24.2%
Turnover 14.7% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEV BSU
Shot Blocked 3.4% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 30.7%