NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEV DRKE
Points 72.6 70.9
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.1 31.9
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 23.0
Points From Free Throws 17.3 16.0
Shooting NEV DRKE
Field Goals Made 24.4 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 51.8 55.3
Field Goal % 47.2% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 15.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 48.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 17.8 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 17.3 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 24.4 21.4
Free Throw % 71.2% 74.8%
Ball Control NEV DRKE
Rebounds 34.5 31.8
Rebounds - Defensive 27.2 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 7.4
Turnovers 10.0 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.8 1.2
Steals 5.4 4.8
Fouls 16.7 19.1

Playing Style Advantage: Drake

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEV DRKE
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 66.9 68.0
% of Possessions with NEV DRKE
2 Point Attempt 43.9% 41.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.0% 29.0%
Player Fouled 27.5% 24.0%
Turnover 14.4% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEV DRKE
Shot Blocked 2.2% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 22.9% 21.3%