NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEV SJSU
Points 76.5 61.2
Total Points   137.7
Points From 2-Pointers 36.2 28.7
Points From 3-Pointers 21.7 23.2
Points From Free Throws 18.7 9.3
Shooting NEV SJSU
Field Goals Made 25.3 22.1
Field Goals Attempted 50.4 55.3
Field Goal % 50.2% 39.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 14.3
2 Pointers Attempted 33.3 30.8
2 Point Shooting % 54.2% 46.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 17.1 24.5
3 Point Shooting % 42.3% 31.6%
Free Throws Made 18.7 9.3
Free Throws Attempted 26.2 13.5
Free Throw % 71.2% 68.6%
Ball Control NEV SJSU
Rebounds 37.3 27.7
Rebounds - Defensive 28.8 21.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 6.5
Turnovers 8.7 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.2
Steals 4.6 3.8
Fouls 13.7 18.9

Playing Style Advantage: San Jose St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEV SJSU
Total Possessions 66.6
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 63.3
% of Possessions with NEV SJSU
2 Point Attempt 43.9% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 32.9%
Player Fouled 28.4% 20.5%
Turnover 13.0% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEV SJSU
Shot Blocked 4.1% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 18.5%