NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCST MISS
Points 76.7 71.8
Total Points   148.5
Points From 2-Pointers 40.5 35.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.4 21.9
Points From Free Throws 15.9 14.0
Shooting NCST MISS
Field Goals Made 27.0 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 60.8 58.6
Field Goal % 44.5% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 42.2 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 48.0% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 15.9 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 19.2
Free Throw % 72.6% 73.0%
Ball Control NCST MISS
Rebounds 37.7 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 10.1
Turnovers 8.8 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.6
Steals 6.4 5.2
Fouls 14.1 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCST MISS
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 73.7 70.6
% of Possessions with NCST MISS
2 Point Attempt 50.1% 46.2%
3 Point Attempt 22.1% 25.2%
Player Fouled 20.1% 20.0%
Turnover 12.4% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCST MISS
Shot Blocked 7.9% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 31.6% 27.9%