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Louisville vs. USC
Wed Dec 27, 2023
8:00pm ET
San Diego, CA
(Neutral Site)
Holiday Bowl: Louisville vs. USC: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Louisville by 5, Total Points: 58
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | LOU | adv | USC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 2-0-0 | 1-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| Streak | W2 | W1 | |
| Last 5 | 2-0-0 | 1-0-0 | |
| Last 10 | 2-0-0 | 1-0-0 | |
| Home | 2-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| Away | 0-0-0 | 1-0-0 |
Louisville Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01 | Neutral | GA Tech | -7.0 | W by 5 | -2.0 |
| 09/07 | Home | Murray St | -43.5 | W by 56 | +12.5 |
| 09/16 | Neutral | Indiana | -10.0 | W by 7 | -3.0 |
| 09/23 | Home | Boston Col | -14.0 | W by 28 | +14.0 |
| 09/29 | Away | NC State | -3.5 | W by 3 | -0.5 |
| 10/07 | Home | Notre Dame | +6.5 | W by 13 | +19.5 |
| 10/14 | Away | Pittsburgh | -7.0 | L by 17 | -24.0 |
| 10/28 | Home | Duke | -5.0 | W by 23 | +18.0 |
| 11/04 | Home | VA Tech | -9.0 | W by 31 | +22.0 |
| 11/09 | Home | Virginia | -20.0 | W by 7 | -13.0 |
| 11/18 | Away | Miami | (Pick) | W by 7 | +7.0 |
| 11/25 | Home | Kentucky | -7.5 | L by 7 | -14.5 |
| 12/02 | Neutral | Florida St | -1.0 | L by 10 | -11.0 |
| 12/27 | Neutral | USC | -5.0 | L by 14 | -19.0 |
USC Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/26 | Home | San Jose St | -31.0 | W by 28 | -3.0 |
| 09/02 | Home | Nevada | -37.5 | W by 52 | +14.5 |
| 09/09 | Home | Stanford | -28.5 | W by 46 | +17.5 |
| 09/23 | Away | Arizona St | -34.5 | W by 14 | -20.5 |
| 09/30 | Away | Colorado | -21.5 | W by 7 | -14.5 |
| 10/07 | Home | Arizona | -21.0 | W by 2 | -19.0 |
| 10/14 | Away | Notre Dame | +3.0 | L by 28 | -25.0 |
| 10/21 | Home | Utah | -7.0 | L by 2 | -9.0 |
| 10/28 | Away | California | -10.5 | W by 1 | -9.5 |
| 11/04 | Home | Washington | +2.5 | L by 10 | -7.5 |
| 11/11 | Away | Oregon | +16.5 | L by 9 | +7.5 |
| 11/18 | Home | UCLA | -5.0 | L by 18 | -23.0 |
| 12/27 | Neutral | Louisville | +5.0 | W by 14 | +19.0 |
| LOU -5.0 | Open | -6.5 | High | -8.5 |
| Last | -4.5 | Low | -4.5 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2018-2019 college football season there have been 57 neutral site games where the closing line favored one team by 4 to 6 points. In these games:
- The team like Louisville won the game 31 times (54.4%).
- The team like Southern California won the game 26 times (45.6%).
- The team like Southern California did better against the spread, going 33-24 (57.9% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 2.6 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2020-2021 college football season there have been 352 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 1.5 points less than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Louisville did better against the spread, going 188-151-13 (55.5% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 2.3 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -5.0 | -7.5 | -- |
| Open | -7.5 | -6.5 | -- |
| History | |||
| 12/27 08:05 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 07:50 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 07:32 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 07:26 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 07:14 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 06:50 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 06:47 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 06:26 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 06:14 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 05:47 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 05:05 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 04:59 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 04:05 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 03:50 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 02:11 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 01:59 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 01:14 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 12:44 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 12:23 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 11:44 AM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 11:38 AM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 11:29 AM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 11:08 AM | -7.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 10:56 AM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 10:35 AM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 09:59 AM | -7.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 08:43 AM | -7.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 08:02 AM | -7.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/27 01:02 AM | -7.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/26 05:02 PM | -7.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/26 03:53 PM | -7.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/26 11:53 AM | -7.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/24 04:44 PM | -7.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/24 02:41 PM | -7.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/22 10:35 AM | -7.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/22 12:05 AM | -7.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/21 07:11 PM | -7.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/21 11:59 AM | -7.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/17 02:50 PM | -7.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/16 11:35 AM | -7.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/15 06:02 PM | -7.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/15 12:44 PM | -7.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/15 12:08 PM | -7.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/13 11:49 AM | -- | -7.5 | -- |
| 12/11 11:49 AM | -7.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/07 04:09 PM | -7.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 01:17 PM | -- | -7.5 | -- |
| 12/03 10:38 PM | -- | -6.5 | -- |
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